15-20% of my users are on dial-up, as am I. In rural areas it is still often the only choice. In my experience flash is still a problem for many of them to the extent I would certainly not have it as an obligatory part of the design. A splash page without and opt put text link that comes up first will almost always be an immediate put off for me.
That said, I think flash will be the bigger player for some time to come. It just isn't something I like. I think a lot of users mistake low download people for being obviously outside of their demographic--meanwhile the keep using badly designed obligatory flash elements. Very irritating. Some very high tech people are stuck in backwater areas.
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